I See Red

President Obama

A lot is resting on President Obama's shoulders.  The decisions of his administration will determine whether the world goes into a deep depression and whether we can respond in time to the great challenges of our time such as climate change. 

He has already done something few have managed to do in a very long time: engaged millions of Americans, young and old.  He has given them the power to change America.  He understands that great challenges require communities coming together united in a common purpose, not isolated individuals seeking only greed.

For the sake of us all, I hope that the Obama administration is able to re-new the social contract with America.  And where he leads on the economy and climate change, I hope the rest of the world will follow.

YES WE CAN (AND DID!)

     

President Obama

I probably won't get time to blog tomorrow, so I'll do it now.

Tomorrow Obama will win the US Presidential election by an Electoral College landslide (closer to 400 than 300). Just 40 years from the end of racial segregation and African American disenfranchisement Obama will be the first African American President.

After 8 years of Republican rule that has left American weaker militarily and economically, Obama will face a variety of challenges including two wars, an economic crisis and climate change crisis. Don't expect any leftist extremism. Obama will be a moderate President, restoring balance after 8 years of hard-right government.

He will bring a responsible end to the Iraq war. He will make a massive investment in science and technology so that American can become energy independent while also creating millions of new jobs. And he will help work on building a more regulated economy with greater oversight.

Obama's great opportunity lies in engaging the millions of grass-roots activists that have supported his campaign to build change from the bottom-up. Universal Health care will only come if these new activist networks take on the powerful lobbies.

Earlier in the year I knocked on over 2000 American doors for Obama over the course of four weeks in a key swing state - Pennsylvania. It was my small contribution to Obama and what he stands for. In these challenging times we need politicians we can trust and politicians who bring us hope that the world can be a better place. Obama is the man for these challenging times.

Obama's instincts

If you would like to learn a bit more about the next President of the US (why he is winning and the kind of President he will be) then you should read this Time article.  

Electoral Impact of International Financial Crisis

Have a look at the below graph.  It indicates the impact that the International Financial Crisis is having on the US election (of course Obama is also performing better in the debates and has a stronger ground game).

And now think about the impact that this International Financial Crisis is or could have on our own campaign here in New Zealand.  In that context, the Roy Morgan and 3News polls could be telling the start of an interesting story.

Obama landslide?

All the polls in the US have Obama heading for a landslide victory in four weeks time (winning in Indiana and Virginia - hello!).  The GOP are going to throw everything at Obama with McCain launching attack ads today trying to link Obama to William Ayers.  Basically McCain is saying that Obama once sat on the same school board with a man who did bad things when Obama was eight years old, and that means Obama hates America.  The problem for McCain is, no'one cares.  People are rightly anxious about the economy and their own jobs and don't see McCain as the man to lead them through this crisis.  It's the economy stupid.  Images are from fivethirtyeight.com.

Palin is scary

OMG!

Obama has massive lead

Following a statistically predicted convention bounce of 6% for Obama and equivalent bounce for McCain, polling returned to an equilibrium of around +2% to Obama 2 weeks ago.  That small lead has now ballooned out to a massive 5-9% lead in most major polls.  As the financial crisis has come to the fore Obama's numbers have soared.  A 5-9% popular vote lead would ensure a massive electoral college victory for Obama - as you can see from the pictures below.  And regardless of what partisans thought of the debate performance (I though McCain came across as grumpy and testy, Obama calm and Presidential, others though McCain commanding and Obama aloof), all the polls show independents and undecideds thought Obama won the debate and were more likely to support Obama as a result.

For quite a while I've been saying Obama would win, and win comfortably.  Several people have scoffed at that suggestion (including a recent debate I had with an MP who suggested the US was too racist to elect a black man (not my experience when doorknocking for Obama) and they should have picked Hillary).  But I stand by my view.  Things may close up in the next 40 days, but Obama will still come out on top.

Time for some campaignin - JibJab

Try JibJab Sendables® eCards today!

Democratic Convention and GOP VP pick

Sorry for the delay in posting, there has been a lot to talk about lately!

I watched as much of the Democratic Convention (online - yay!) as I could.  I just wished I could have been there.  Every speech was amazing.  Of the major speeches, Michelle Obama was stunning, then Ted Kennedy, then Hillary Clinton, then Bill Clinton, then Joe Biden, then John Kerry, then Al Gore, and finally Obama!  What a line-up; and every speech a stunner.  I thought Obama's was particularly good.  Gone was the soaring rhetoric (although there was some of that), to be replaced by solid specific policies, a strong re-introduction of modern liberal ideology and devastating attacks on the Republicans and John McCain.  And he *looked* Presidential.  Combined with Joe Biden, a solid choice who has the unanimous backing of the Democrats, and things are looking good for the Democrats.

Contrast that with poor McCain.  He clearly picked Palin to reach out to the conservative base, and pick up support from women (including former Hillary backers).  Problem is, he didn't seem to do a very good job of vetting.  Not only will people feel uncomfortable with her experience (she hasn't been tested on the National stage and claims to not even know what a VP does), but turns out that she was a member of AIP (Alaska Independence Party), and she is under investigation for unfairly firing her public safety commissioner (because he divorced Pilan's sister).  And more importantly than all of that, the poll numbers show women are more turned off by Palin than men.  In fact Democratic women voters are now 15% less likely to support McCain with Palin on the ticket.  Whoops!

UPDATE:  I'm starting to doubt that Palin will even make it through to the November election.