Todays match (England v Sri Lanka) was a close one. England needed 3 runs off the last ball - but instead Fernando bowled Bopara out for a Sri Lanka win.
By my calculations that now means that from the remainder of the games the likely outcome (unless there is a major upset)
Team Min points Max points
Australia 10 14
New Zealand 8 14
Sri Lanka 6 12
South Africa 8 12
England 4 8
West Indies 4 6
Ireland 2 2
Bangladesh 0 0
Therefore the top four team should be Australia, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, and South Africa. The only way New Zealand won't make the top four is if New Zealand loses all of its remaining matches, and England wins all of its remaining matches.
New Zealand still has to play Ireland (which we should win - enough to get us into the final 4), Sri Lanka, South Africa and Australia. I would hope that we would also win at least one of those three matches.
England still has to play Bangladesh, South Africa and West Indies. They should win two of those.
So (touch wood) it is all looking ok. However, the Black Caps are often a mixed bag of brilliant and disastrous, so I'm not counting any chickens yet...
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