I See Red

A story of contrasts - National versus Labour

The election campaign has taken a radical shift in the past 2 weeks.  National's strategy of running a bland campaign and being Labour-lite has been found wanting in an environment when people are feeling anxious about the International Financial Crisis and their own jobs and wellbeing.

National's campaign launch offered no new ideas and no new policy.  Ironically Bill English said Labour was about style not substance.  Well the media consensus is that it is the other way around.  John Armstrong sums it up nicely:

If actions speak louder than words, Labour was the winner on Day One of the official election campaign - game, set and match.

In the fight over which of the two major parties is best at running the economy, Labour scored a significant tactical victory.

After nine years in opposition they have no real economic plan for our future.  The policy (although I don't know if you can call slogans and bullet points policy) National has announced is no different from what they've been arguing for more than a decade - tax cuts, gut the RMA, cut red tape.  Their other policy points are nothing more than shallow endorsements of Labour's 1999-2008 policy.  And the rest is just scary.  Jordan Carter labels their plans "economic vandalism".

Labour has shifted up a gear, and is about to launch a series of meaty policies that deal with the economic crisis in a holistic way - including savings, infrastructure, skills and training, jobs and economic growth.  Labour's launch was about substance.  In addition to the bank deposit announcement to reassure people to not take their deposits out of our banks Labour announced policy on education and skills training.  In the new few days Michael Cullen will be announcing more detailed policy on the "six drivers of economic growth" innovation, boosting our export trade, sustainability, infrastructure, and savings.

Plus there will be policy on housing and health and more.

They dynamics of the 2008 have dramatically changed.  It is Labour that is showing the leadership to deal with the economic crisis.  It is Labour that is and will be offering bold new detailed policy to lead New Zealand through these difficult economic times.  It is Labour that has the record of delivering bold popular policies that New Zealanders support.  It is Helen Clark that has a record of making the right calls on the difficult decisions.  This election is about trust.

UPDATE: Another contrast is given by Audrey Young "Dull National vs energised Labour". 

If you had arrived in Auckland from another planet and gone to both launches, you'd probably have thought that National was the tired old Government and that Labour was the fresh invigorated party on the brink of power.
It was that stark: dull vs energised.

Why the poll gap is closing: "good in a crisis"

The latest Roy Morgan poll has the gap between National and Labour closing from 11% to 3% and the left block at 47.5% (Labour, Progressive, Green) to the right block on 45% (National, Act, United Future). 

The 3 News poll also has the gap closing from 14% to 6% with the left block at 46% to the right block on 47%.

The polls are extremely similar and I am inclined to believe them; particularly the 3 News poll.  I believe them because in the phone canvassing and door knocking I've been doing over the past two weeks I've detected a notable softening of National's support and a slight increase in Labour support.

But why the significant turnaround?  The conventional wisdom (Colin James talks about it this week here, and Therese Arseneau here) is that people turn against Governments when the economy goes bad.  Certainly the increased petrol, food and power prices is a significant part of Labour's bad polling over the past 12 months.  In the US the public are blaming the Republican's for the economic crisis.  They look set to be punished in their elections.

So why has the reaction been so very different here in NZ?  This is not a conventional domestic economic downturn.

Firstly, Labour (mainly Michael Cullen) built up a reputation over the past 9 years of being a prudent manager of the countries finances, running large surpluses and reducing debt.  In fact many saw Cullen as being too much of a Scrooge McDuck and not giving tax cuts soon enough or big enough.  This partly explains why National will now find it hard to claim Michael Cullen was too loose with the countries finances.  That reputation came through in today's 3 News polls with more people trusting Labour and Michael Cullen to deal with the countries finances.

Secondly, most people are not blaming Labour for the International Financial Crisis.  They rightly believe we are sailing into difficult waters domestically because of the global storm, independent of what Labour has or hasn't done in Government.

Thirdly, look at the 3 News poll from May 2008.   Even when Labour was polling at its very worst in the 3 News poll (National on 51% and Labour on 36%), 80% thought Helen Clark was a capable leader to John Key's 63% - a 17% gap.  And 75% though Helen Clark would be good in a crisis to John Key's 49% - a 26% gap.

The world is in crisis - an economic crisis.  Has this helped Helen Clark and Labour?  If the question of this election is "who do you trust to manage us through this global financial crisis" we know that Helen Clark rates very highly against Key.  Is that what we're seeing in the polls this week?

Finally, my gut instinct is that National's "Economic Management Plan" has gone down like a led balloon with the public.  Will this show through in subsequent polls?

Hillary and Clark in Antartica

Two of my favourite New Zealanders in Antarctica.

Helen's been reading my blog!

I think Helen Clark has been reading my blog! The below is from a speech she gave to the CTU today. She hasn't quite got the concept of the emerging diversity coalition of the 21st Century yet, but she'll get there!

This on identity and the new New Zealand:

It [this term] will be about the development of our national identity as a unique nation; as a tolerant and inclusive nation able to accommodate diverse peoples and beliefs and proud of its heritage; as a creative nation which celebrates those who express what’s special about us through music, dance, theatre, literature, film, and design; and as a nation which takes pride in all its successes across many fields.

And this which reflects the diversity coalition:

We will succeed by mobilising the skills, ideas, talent, and passion of New Zealanders as a people. And that means all New Zealanders - we cannot afford to leave any individual or community behind.

That’s why our government will work with leaders across our communities – unions and business; Maori, Pasifika, and ethnic communities; in education, science and research; and the community to get the best results for New Zealand as a whole.