National and Labour 8 months on

It is now 8 months since the 2008 General Election and worth reflecting on the political landscape.  I can only reflect back what I see and hear in the media and my observations from within the Labour Party and my work sphere (the NGO/Health sector). 

While John Key and National's honeymoon has gone through a rough patch over the past couple of months, they continue to poll in the low to mid 50% range.  Most Kiwis are fair minded and want to see them given a chance to be a successful Government.  It's also too early for the public to blame National for where the country is or is heading.  Several times I've heard people attack a specific National policy (eg the cuts to community education) but defend National on the basis that the economy is in recession and they have a difficult task to balance the books. 

But there is also a growing uneasiness.  One colleague in the health sector who voted National for a tax cut in 2008 found that he received his tax cut in April only to lose his job in June when National cut funding to health promotion (which to my colleagues surprise is apparently no longer a front-line service). 

This is not a Labour-lite Government.  This is a traditional National Government cutting spending and programmes on an ideological basis and using the recession as an excuse to undermine popular Labour policies and programmes.  While that may not be showing in the polls now, before too long the New Zealand public will realise they have been hoodwinked and demand a real economic recovery package, and restored investment in health, education and jobs.

No'one wants to hear from Labour.  The public had 9 years to hear from Labour and Labour is well aware of that.  But that doesn't mean that Labour isn't rebuilding.  Labour is quietly rebuilding membership and organisation.  Labour MPs are quietly reconnecting with the community, listening, debating, engaging.  The online presence is a good example.  Over 800 activists have joined the new Grassroots Labour site - a site for Labour members to chat, debate, and organise in an open forum.  Red Alert (the Labour MP blog) has quickly become one of the most popular political blogs.  And the left-leaning Standard is going from strength to strength.  The Mount Albert by-election was a real show of force and demonstrates what Labour can do when it goes back to basics and runs a grassroots on-the-ground campaign that talks about the issues of concern to local people.  But such rebuilding takes time to filter through into public support and political polls.  Opposition also takes a major readjustment in mindset that some havn't managed yet.   

I don't expect to see much movement in Labour's polling for at least another 12 months.  The question is, can Labour do enough in the next 28 months to increase its support by the 6% or so needed to form a coalition Government with other partners?  And will there be any partners?  That's a topic for another post.

Comments

[tim barclay]

National is cutting poorly though out spending that never got a proper analysis before setting them up in the first place. I have never heard a Labour politician ask whether something is delivering good value for tax payers' dollars. National is winning that argument. When there is plenty of money to splash about the public may turn again the Labour, but right now people do not trust Labour to keep the cost of Government under control.

[dave]

And will there be any partners?

No.

[Tony Milne]

Thanks Dave. I will blog my answer to that question some time over the next few weeks.

[George D]

"Will there be any partners?"

Not if the Labour Party (and Mallard in particular) keeps pouring petrol on the burned out bridges between them and the Maori Party.

[ross]

Tony,

Would you mind explaining what the Labour Party is doing for Peter Ellis?

You will recall that two former National MPs, Don Brash and Katherine Rich, have written to the Minister of Justice requesting a Commission of Inquiry into the Ellis case. What exactly is Labour's position on this?

[Tony Milne]

Hi Ross,

I don't believe National or Labour have a formal position. Rich and Brash were acting as individuals not on behalf of their caucus.

Secondly, Labour is not in Government. I understand the Minister of Justice is the only one who can act.

[ross]

Yes, Tony, I am well aware that Labour is not in government! I was asking what Labour's position is in relation to the matter. Is Labour quite happy to see the issue go away or does it want a formal inquiry? More generally, what does Labour think of establishing a Criminal Cases Review Commission. Your friend Tim Barnett has been an enthusiastic supporter of such a body and so have others, such as Sir Thomas Thorp. Where does Labour stand on the issue?

It seems strange that a party which has had a long history of campaigning on social justice issues does not seem too concerned about miscarriages of justice.

[Tony Milne]

I don't think *any* caucus has a formal caucus view (and are unlikely to I imagine) - that was my point.