Why the poll gap is closing: "good in a crisis"

The latest Roy Morgan poll has the gap between National and Labour closing from 11% to 3% and the left block at 47.5% (Labour, Progressive, Green) to the right block on 45% (National, Act, United Future). 

The 3 News poll also has the gap closing from 14% to 6% with the left block at 46% to the right block on 47%.

The polls are extremely similar and I am inclined to believe them; particularly the 3 News poll.  I believe them because in the phone canvassing and door knocking I've been doing over the past two weeks I've detected a notable softening of National's support and a slight increase in Labour support.

But why the significant turnaround?  The conventional wisdom (Colin James talks about it this week here, and Therese Arseneau here) is that people turn against Governments when the economy goes bad.  Certainly the increased petrol, food and power prices is a significant part of Labour's bad polling over the past 12 months.  In the US the public are blaming the Republican's for the economic crisis.  They look set to be punished in their elections.

So why has the reaction been so very different here in NZ?  This is not a conventional domestic economic downturn.

Firstly, Labour (mainly Michael Cullen) built up a reputation over the past 9 years of being a prudent manager of the countries finances, running large surpluses and reducing debt.  In fact many saw Cullen as being too much of a Scrooge McDuck and not giving tax cuts soon enough or big enough.  This partly explains why National will now find it hard to claim Michael Cullen was too loose with the countries finances.  That reputation came through in today's 3 News polls with more people trusting Labour and Michael Cullen to deal with the countries finances.

Secondly, most people are not blaming Labour for the International Financial Crisis.  They rightly believe we are sailing into difficult waters domestically because of the global storm, independent of what Labour has or hasn't done in Government.

Thirdly, look at the 3 News poll from May 2008.   Even when Labour was polling at its very worst in the 3 News poll (National on 51% and Labour on 36%), 80% thought Helen Clark was a capable leader to John Key's 63% - a 17% gap.  And 75% though Helen Clark would be good in a crisis to John Key's 49% - a 26% gap.

The world is in crisis - an economic crisis.  Has this helped Helen Clark and Labour?  If the question of this election is "who do you trust to manage us through this global financial crisis" we know that Helen Clark rates very highly against Key.  Is that what we're seeing in the polls this week?

Finally, my gut instinct is that National's "Economic Management Plan" has gone down like a led balloon with the public.  Will this show through in subsequent polls?

Comments

[Clint Heine]

While I am not a supporter of the National tax policy, you are getting too excited about that poll.

National will win, but it is a question on how much it will be. When you have hardcore Labour supporters telling you they are going to not vote Labour, then you know it is going to be messy in November.

The only advice I can give is to dust yourself off and be round to fight another day, with dignity.

[Tony Milne]

Hi Clint,

I disagree. I think there has been a shift in public sentiment in the past two weeks. The phone canvassing and doorknocking I'm doing confirms that. People had started shifting back to Labour once the International Financial Crisis gained attention here, shifted back further after National's tax announcement. And I suspect yesterdays launches may shift things even further away from National.

Remember, National only has to drop to 45% or less for Labour to become the Government. If Labour get 39% and Greens 9% it will be a LPG Government.