Looking foward, not back

Am about to head off to celebrate the new New Zealand at the Big Day Out.  Then I'm off to Labour's Summer School (the theme is Renewal), and Ratana.  I'll give an update when I get back.

While Labour's looking forward, Don Brash can only look back (his own that is).  The knife will come.  Leadership speculation (hat tip Just Left) takes on a life of its own.  National's best bet would be Key/Rich (to help in their poor performance in the woman vote).  But I expect English will be a strong contender for the number 1 spot, so he will probably end up number 2 (and quite possible he could come back to lead National).  Brash will be kept around 3-5 to save face.  Gerry will be the big loser.

Of course, the messier the better for Labour.  Brash could try to hold on, and if National continue to poll well, it makes it more difficult for them to roll him.  And I don't believe Brash can win an election.  He destroyed his greatest strength during the campaign such as his perceived 'non politician' quality and that will only grow the longer he remains leader of National.

I'm also assuming Brash is planning another Orewa speech.  It could be on a range of things, but I expect they might try to hammer away on the economy/tax cuts.  Thoughts?  What would be the best thing for Brash for Brash to focus on?  What would be the best thing for National for Brash to focus on?

Comments

[tim barclay]

You have a big problem with the maori vote. The Maori Party which does not believe in welfarism (whereas Labour does) is getting big support from maori. The old ratana machine may no do it for you and that movement is divided anyway about the Labour Party and what it wants for maori. You could look no further than the Labour maori MPs to see what the Labour Party wants from maori - accept state dependancy, shut up and vote for us.

[toby1845]

Labour's hypocrisy and ongoing lies would be a good start.

[toby1845]

....or perhaps the politicisation of the Police force: something that Mike Moore warned about in 1998.

[Ivan the Terrible]

Nah. Hopefully he will tell us about Steve Maharey performing cunnilingus on his dead wife in a Palmerston North funeral home. That would be great.

[Nichlemn]

Never considering that National's problem in the women vote could actually be Labour's problem in the men vote?

Tut, tut, tut, that's very sexist of you to concentrate only on the female side. :)

[Craig Ranapia]

Ivan:
Tony is too much of a gentleman to say this, but I'm not - why don't you take your typing finger out of your arse, wash the shit off (don't forget under the nail) and be quiet until your mental age can be measured in decades rather than nanoseconds?

[Michael]

Craig: Hear, hear!

Tony: Read the article - Brash is clearly saying "I have the numbers in the back pocket". So, I'm willing to bet a very nice bottle of wine that Brash will be leader of National after Clark steps down from Labour.

He has loyal support from within the party, and a caucus that know they exist only because of him.

It's a well known trick in politics to push attention away from your own failings by trying to get a leadership putsch underway in your opponents. Brash has about 30 solid votes - as long as he keeps National above Labour (or in touch) he is safe for now.

[stef]

Craig, well put.

Have fun, wish I was able to go instead of being in cold Korea.

[rjs131]

Tony, in all fairness what has an Australian based and organised music festival which is being headlined by a Scottish and 2 American bands got to do with the mythical New Zealand?

ANd will Labour be discussing how to improve their poor performance in the male vote or will it be promoting such up and comers in the caucus such as Judith Tizard to endear Labour to the male vote