Edwards endorses Obama
Time for Clinton to admit it's all over. John Edwards is a superdelegate (and quite popular in the Democratic Party), but he also has 19 pledged delegates who he can release to support Obama.
Back in NZ soon
I'll be back in NZ early next week. This will be my last post until then. My prediction has proven correct in terms of the Democratic race. Obama is now leading in superdelegates (another Clinton supporter has switched today. Today 7 superdelegates have declared for Obama, 0 for Clinton). I'd be interested in returning to NZ with some debate in the below post on people's thoughts - I'm happy to be challenged on my assumptions. Bear in mind that I'm someone who believes in strong action on climate change!
Looking forward to returning home.
Bread and Butter electon in 2008
The 2008 General Election will be a bread and butter election - literally. The top issue this election will be the economy. Food prices, power prices, petrol prices, mortgage rates, tax cuts, strategic assets, broadband, rail, climate change, free trade, saving for the future. All relate to the role Government plays in the economy and the impact that has, or could potentially have, in helping ease the pressures faced by households. Health, education, crime and the environment will feature, but the economy will be the top issue.
I've been meaning to post on the issue of the Emissions Trading Scheme "backdown", and carbon neutrality. But I didn't want to post in issolation and without context. (Jordan Carter has done two posts here and here, and George Darroch two posts in response here and here, that should be read before this post).
The context is that it is election year with the Governing party polling in the mid 30% to National's low 50%s. Labour has been stung in the past for moving too fast; moving forward without bringing people on board. Many people were shocked at the depth of feeling Don Brash's Orewa speech generated. Those in touch with working-class New Zealand wouldn't have been so surprised. For many, years of resentment had grown (whether justified or not) and Don Brash tapped into that deep resentment to wedge off Labour's working-class support. It was almost enought for National to win the 2005 General Election.
The new tactic of the right in NZ and elsewhere? Appear to shift back to the centre, attack the Governing party/person as being out of touch, while focussing on crime and cost of living issues.
So what's really going on with the Emission Trading Scheme (and the regional fuel tax). And is this all about the election? Yes, and No. Labour is a social democratic party. It's first concern will always be with low and middle income people. These are the people who will be hurt (short term) the most by rising petrol prices, rising power prices and rising food prices. The same people who won't vote on the basis that the Government is doing something about climate change. Back in January I did a post on the challenge Labour faces to win the 2008 election. In it I argued that:
Like Climate Change, most working-class Labour supporters don't give a stuff - it is the domain of the liberal and elite. Labour needs to reconnect with the hopes and dreams of working-class New Zealand. Policies delivered, not as an act of benevolence by the Government, but because they are the basic right of New Zealanders and what New Zealanders should expect from wise investment of the nations tax - such as universal free health and education, and affordable quality housing for all.
Does this mean NZ won't be carbon neutral? No. George is spot on in his second post. It is the carrots and not the sticks that currently have the most electoral appeal. The sticks will come too, but not all at once. Labour must take the country with them - or risk being thrown out.
And, again as I said the other day, people have choices. For those passionate about climate change as their number one concern, they know who to vote for. But this election will be fought in the centre, on bread and butter (and petrol and power) issues. Going into the election guaranteeing to increase the price of all those things isn't the way to get elected, and isn't the way to build consensus on climate change policy.
Battle at Kruger
I was hoping the cheeky croc would get one of the lions...
And the winner is...
The media narrative is clear (they don't always get things right, but once the narrative is there, it's hard to break), Obama has won the nomination. The front of the NY Times yesterday has a picture of Clinton with the words "TOAST". Obama picked up 4 superdelegates yesterday, Clinton 1. The only question now is whether she will exit with dignity and help unify the Democratic party.
US election update following decisive day
Hillary is staying in the race (did anyone expect anything less!). But she could be doing so in order to raise the $11.4 million she has loaned herself in this campaign. By staying in the race, she can spend the minimum while raising the money to pay herself and her various campaign debts. Her campaign is dead.
Former Sen George McGovern, who had endorsed Clinton, has withdrawn his endorsement and is now endorsing Obama. He says that the math is impossible for Clinton and it's time for the Democrats to unite behind Obama. The first in the flood of endorsements and superdelegates I expect for Obama over the coming days and weeks.
Obama will close the deal today - finally
It's currently 7.30pm here in the US. Results have started coming in. As I said the other day, I believe Obama will win North Carolina by 10% or more. Indiana will be very close. But even if Clinton wins Indiana by 10% Obama will pick up more delegates and popular vote today (because North Carolina has 134 delegates up for grabs compared with 85 in Indiana), making it next to impossible for Clinton to win. Combine that with the fact that since early Feb superdelegates are going 5 to 1 in Obama's favour, and a key Clinton superdelegates switched sides this week, we'll see superdelegates jumping on board the Obama ship from today.
UPDATE (11.41pm US time): Well, I was right. Obama wins by 14% (over 220,000 in the popular vote) - completely wiping the result of the Pennsylvania primary. He will pick up a lot of delegates. In Indiana Clinton is currently leading by 4%, but if Obama wins the final county (the second biggest) by 60%, he will win Indiana. Clinton looked dejected in her 'victory' speech and Chelsea looked like she was crying. I stand by my prediction that superdelegates will move in large numbers towards Obama after tonight's victory.
Obama is the Democratic nominee from tonight.
Some other interesting facts from the exit poll data.
Obama does not have an elitism problem:
Indiana:
Does Clinton share your values?
Yes 62
No 37
Does Obama share your values?
Yes 65
No 33
Black voters have abandoned Clinton in a major way:
Indiana
African Americans:
Obama 92
Clinton 8
North Carolina
African Americans:
Obama 91
Clinton 6
Infrastructure for the future
A modern and efficient rail system will be as crucial to our future as fiber to the home broadband. So I'm extremely pleased to see that the Government has secured this crucial rail infrastructure. As petrol prices go up and up and up public transport (rail and buses) will be increasingly important. And as the price of Kyoto starts to kick in, rail will be an obvious solution to moving people and freight around. Having said that, I'm at a loss to understand why we paid so much. Surely, given the Government owned the rail, the Government could have driven a much harder deal?
Which leads me to the second related point - broadband. I was pleased to see John Key come out with a bold position on investing in broadband. I agree that the Government must play a role in ensuring fast-speed broadband Internet. Having spent the past 7 weeks in the US, where they do have very fast Internet, I have discovered how disabling our Internet speeds in New Zealand are. Having said that, Key's proposal seemed a little weak on details. I'd like to see a continued debate on how to get fast Internet speeds and in the shortest possible time. If that means Government investment is needed, so be it. Key, by proposal the Government fund the investment, has presented the Government with an opporunity to come up with its own proposal that National will find difficult to attack.
Which leads me to the final point - climate change and petrol prices. The Government is sending very mixed messages about what it is trying to achieve in sustainability. On the one hand the Government announces that it wants to be carbon neutral, and starts to develop (finally) a policy to address climate change. And the other hand, it is sending a message it doesn't want regional councils to use one of the key tools it is introducing to address climate change, the regional fuel tax).
Why the mixed messages? Firstly, while many people are concerned about climate change, the vast majority of people are always much more concerned about their back-pocket - particularly when making political decisions like who to support in an election year. Petrol prices are important, because most people fill up their tanks at least once a week and in the course of a day drive past petrol stations, and therefore a constant reminder of petrol prices, several times a day. National's 2005 "remove GST on petrol" bribe was bad policy, but good politics (actually it's bad politics, but that depends on how you view politics!). It almost got them over the line last election.
I was in charge, last year, of helping develop Labour's climate change policies for our manifesto - which involved facilitating a party-wide discussion on climate change. The one over-riding message from our members was that they wanted more carrot and less stick: more incentives for energy and fuel efficiency and fewer disincentives such as additional taxes and penalties. The problem of course, is that disincentives tend to be much more successful than incentives.
So where does that leave us? In an MMP environment people have choices. Voters get to send a message with their 2008 vote about the relative importance of different issues and the relative value people place on different policies and priorities. I hope that that is what the 2008 election is about. While the election will be fought in the political center, people will have clear choices within that.
I will do another post soon on what I think the election will be about, and what I think are the policy strengths and differences between each party.
UPDATE: NZ Herald reports that the Government will also delay bringing the transport sector into its emissions trading scheme until 2011.
Masters of wedge politics do it again
The masters of wedge politics, Australia's Crosby and Texter, have done it again. After leading John Howard to four consecutive election wins (he wasn't involved in Howard's recent defeats), on the back of racist wedge politics, and fresh from advising the National Party here on their 2005 General Election, Crosby and Texter have helped lead the Conservatives Boris Johnson to a victory in the Mayoral campaign in Labour London. Crosby has set up shop in the UK and is likely to be a key strategist for the Conservatives next General Election.
The Conservatives were helped of course by Gordon Brown and Labour's major failings over recent years and Brown must take some responsibility for their loss of 341 Council seats. Brown doesn't have long to turn things around if he is to stay in the top job, and the next election is due within the next two years. Brown is seeking to quell discontent from the election by scrapping his proposed tax changes.
Gordon Brown is poised to scrap a series of unpopular tax rises as part of sweeping changes to stave off a dangerous revolt over the rising cost of living which last week dealt Labour its worst electoral hammering in 40 years.
US Democratic nominee update - 03 May 08
Obama today won Guam (only 4 pledged delegates at stake) by just 7 votes. Obama finished with 2,264 votes, or 50.1 percent. Sen. Hillary Clinton got 2,257 votes, or 49.9 percent. Both gain 2 pledged delegates. But Obama has also today picked up 5 superdelegates to Clinton's 1 (as I predicted earlier in the week would start happening). Obama is now 285 votes from the nomination, Clinton 416.
Meanwhile, the NY Times have published a story and graph showing the positives and negatives for Clinton and Obama over the past 3 years among two different voting demographics - white and black Democrats. The Polls show that Obama's negatives with white voters has increased 5 percent, but the positives with white voters has also increased 5 percent. On the other hand, Clinton's negatives with black democrats have increased substantially (17 percent) and positives decreased substantially (35 percent).
Clinton superdelegate switches to Obama
It’s been 4 months since Iowa – it feels like forever! And there are still 6 months until the Presidential election.
Today a strong Clinton supporter, Joe Andrew, retracted his endorsement, and switched it to Obama. This is a big blow to Clinton. In the past 24 hours Obama has picked up 5 more superdelegates and the superdelegate gap between Clinton and Obama is now just 19. Andrew has called on superdelegates to decide now, and not wait until June or July. That initially he thought a longer battle was good for the Democrats because it allowed them to strengthen their organization in all 50 states, but that the fight is getting so nasty it is starting to tear the Democrats apart. He even goes so far as to support Senator Evan Bayh as Obama's VP. Bayh is also a strong Clinton supporter.
I wonder if James Carville will blow his top again like he did against Bill Richardson? Andrew's defection is probably a fatal blow to Clinton's chances. It's a high-profile, high-level signal to other superdelegates that it's okay to switch to Obama in order to finally bring about the inevitable conclusion.
I think we could potentially see some major developments happen quite quickly over the next few weeks. Obama should win North Carolina by 10%, possibly more. Indiana will be close and could go either way. If Obama wins Indiana, or even if he only loses by a few points, superdelegates will come on board with Obama in large numbers, securing him the nomination. Clinton's dam has now sprung a major leak in the form of Joe Andrew. The whole thing now threatens to collapse.
Obama, by not jumping on board the populist "petrol tax holiday", is looking more Presidential than both McCain and Clinton. McCain and Clinton have both proposed a quick-fix "petrol tax holiday" for the summer. But it is being attacked from everywhere as a populist move that won't work because: 1) the legislation would take too long to pass, 2) likely to actually increase petrol prices, and 3) will remove tens of millions from the fund used to build and repair roads.
"Sir Ian, all bureaucracy pending, he’s on board"
Guillermo del Toro gives an interview with theonering.net about the two Hobbit films he will be directing. He reveals that Sir Ian, "all bureaucracy pending" is on board, as is Andy Serkis. He talks about greater use of full animatronics and animatronic creatures enhanced with CGI, as opposed to CGI creatures themselves.
And he had this nice comment about New Zealand:
I really love how they have that setup in New Zealand, I call it ‘Hollywood the way God intended it’. New Zealand has all the technical advantages when doing a big movie and you are shooting it in paradise, both in terms of artistic freedom and commitment.
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