I See Red

National and Labour 8 months on

It is now 8 months since the 2008 General Election and worth reflecting on the political landscape.  I can only reflect back what I see and hear in the media and my observations from within the Labour Party and my work sphere (the NGO/Health sector). 

While John Key and National's honeymoon has gone through a rough patch over the past couple of months, they continue to poll in the low to mid 50% range.  Most Kiwis are fair minded and want to see them given a chance to be a successful Government.  It's also too early for the public to blame National for where the country is or is heading.  Several times I've heard people attack a specific National policy (eg the cuts to community education) but defend National on the basis that the economy is in recession and they have a difficult task to balance the books. 

But there is also a growing uneasiness.  One colleague in the health sector who voted National for a tax cut in 2008 found that he received his tax cut in April only to lose his job in June when National cut funding to health promotion (which to my colleagues surprise is apparently no longer a front-line service). 

This is not a Labour-lite Government.  This is a traditional National Government cutting spending and programmes on an ideological basis and using the recession as an excuse to undermine popular Labour policies and programmes.  While that may not be showing in the polls now, before too long the New Zealand public will realise they have been hoodwinked and demand a real economic recovery package, and restored investment in health, education and jobs.

No'one wants to hear from Labour.  The public had 9 years to hear from Labour and Labour is well aware of that.  But that doesn't mean that Labour isn't rebuilding.  Labour is quietly rebuilding membership and organisation.  Labour MPs are quietly reconnecting with the community, listening, debating, engaging.  The online presence is a good example.  Over 800 activists have joined the new Grassroots Labour site - a site for Labour members to chat, debate, and organise in an open forum.  Red Alert (the Labour MP blog) has quickly become one of the most popular political blogs.  And the left-leaning Standard is going from strength to strength.  The Mount Albert by-election was a real show of force and demonstrates what Labour can do when it goes back to basics and runs a grassroots on-the-ground campaign that talks about the issues of concern to local people.  But such rebuilding takes time to filter through into public support and political polls.  Opposition also takes a major readjustment in mindset that some havn't managed yet.   

I don't expect to see much movement in Labour's polling for at least another 12 months.  The question is, can Labour do enough in the next 28 months to increase its support by the 6% or so needed to form a coalition Government with other partners?  And will there be any partners?  That's a topic for another post.

Virtual Rugby

Had my best season yet with the Super 14 Virtual Rugby.  Ended up 2389 out of over 125,000 players. 

Obama kills a fly

It's not really politics, but hey, how many times you you tried to swat a fly with you hands and failed?  Pesky things.

Vote Yes

John Key describes 6000+ unemployed as "7 and change"

I didn't attend the Christchurch Press sponsored Prime Minister's South Island Forum last night, but they do have a video of some of the highlights up on their website.

There was one line that struck me.  John Key (around 2.45 in the video) says "Treasury have unemployment at 8% by the sort of end of next year, the Reserve Bank are 7% and change I think, 7.3% or something".

Now, it may not sound like a lot to John Key, but the .3% of unemployed that he dismissed as "7 and change" is over 6000 people who are projected to lose their jobs.  Surely they deserve a little more respect that being dismissed as "change".

Rankin and Waterview

Cross post from Just Left.

Some strange things are starting to come out of the National Party.

There appears to be quite some disquiet within the National Party (and even the National cabinet) around the appointment of Christine Rankin.  There are those who remember all too well the role she played in the downfall of their last Government and realise how unpopular she is with the public.  But there are those who wish to reward her for the role she played in supporting National over the past couple of years as well as reward the conservative base that helped get National elected last year.

Her appointment, as Russell Brown notes in an excellent post "...is a significant shift away from professional knowledge and towards moral conservative certainties for the Families Commission".

It's all sounding very George Bush.

And then yesterday we also had some interesting creative accounting coming out of the National Party.  This was the kind of rubbish National was constantly getting away with in Opposition - but it's not going to fly any more in Government.  It was so blatantly an attempt to convince the media that the tunnel option was not only more expensive, but massively more expensive than an above ground motorway through a residential area.  And therefore National was saving Mr and Mrs taxpayer over $1 billion dollars.

Putting aside the creative accounting, let's remember that this project is not primarily aimed at benefiting the people of Mt Albert, but the people of Auckland more generally.  Mt Albert people were already being pretty generous in supporting an underground tunnel and it seems that the tunnel was a good compromise consensus.  If National try to bulldoze ahead with their above ground option they can and should expect a massive campaign from the people of Mt Albert to oppose it.  That will mean lengthy delays to the project, added costs, noisy protests etc.  For the people of Mt Albert it is "tunnel of nothing".  The nothing option means significant economic costs to Auckland.

Auckland Super-City: A Christchurch Perspective

Cross-post from Just Left.

I'm a one-eyed Cantabrian, so that is the lens through which I watch the Auckland Super-City arguments play out.  It is not my place to say what is right or wrong for Auckland.  I simply don't know enough about Auckland to know what will work and what won't. 

I do know that regardless of what eventuates I would like to see a Progressive Mayor and Progressive Council in power across as much of Auckland as possible. 

I also know that whether it is Auckland, or Invercargill, or Christchurch that people are shortchanged if they lost the Representative function of Local Government in favour of a Governance only business-style of Council.  Such Council's lack legitimacy and confidence of the public.  The more distant the Council (or Councillors) the lower the voter turnout and the less relevant local government is for people.

It seems to be the trend in New Zealand that we like to restructure things.  Sometimes we opt for large centralised power, then a more intimate devolved model, then back again.  It wouldn't surprise me that if in 15 years time we're breaking Auckland up again into multiple Councils.

The key thing at this particular juncture is that the Government listen to the voice of Auckland people.  That may or may not be in a referendum.  The Government must be willing to take a deep breath, listen, and come up with the best model for Auckland that has the confidence of the public.  Their current model does not do that.

Must read by Gordon Campbell

Gordon Campbell nicely sums up why and how the wheels are falling off the current Government.  Remember, this is a Government that is still in its honeymoon period.

Stop "Guilt Upon Accusation" Law

World first: gay PM in Iceland

Johanna Sigurdardottir is Iceland's new Prime Minister - and she happens to be gay.

I get frustrated when people like Chris Trotter go on about "identity politics" within the Labour Party.  For me such success is not about identity politics but about social democracy in action.  Johanna Sigurdardottir was clearly the best person for the job. 

The social democratic mission is about ensuring that people have the opportunity to succeed regardless of their background (age, sex, gender, disability, income, family background, religion).  I don't celebrate Johanna Sigurdartottir because she is gay: I celebrate Johanna because she was the best person for the job, and Johanna and the Icelandic people did not let sexuality be a barrier to her success.

Hat tip (No Right Turn)

Will it work?

(cross post from Just Left)

I live about 40 metres away from Deans Ave, which is one of the "boy racers" major circuits each weekend in Christchurch.  The noise is frustrating.  The rubbish left behind a nuisance.  And when frustration and nuisance becomes dangerous, such as bullets fired at policemen, then we have a serious issues that must be addressed. 

But this issue has been bubbling away for a number of years.  At each stage the rules have got "tougher", and penalties "harsher", and yet the issues gets worse; the situations more dangerous.  Hon Clayton Cosgrove introduced a "boy racer" private members bill into Parliament with tougher penalties which passed with cross-party support.  Mayor Bob Parker introduced bans into several streets and several parts of the city - even though the evidence was that the problem would simply shift elsewhere.

At each stage the Police have called for more powers to deal with the issue.  Politicians are now responding by promising to "crack down" on "boy racers".  Sound familiar?  Is this part of the "law and order auction"? 

I'm not interested in being "harsh" or "soft" on boy racers.  I'm also not interested in defending indefensible and illegal behaviour.  The situation must be solved.  My key question is - what will work? 

What will solve the problem, or create a situation where the noise, the nuisance, the rubbish, the danger is minimised?  Is crushing cars, removing licenses and throwing these "boy racers" into prison (as John Key, Judith Collins, the police and others are suggesting) really going to solve the problem, or will it create an even worse situation?  Where is the evidence, the research, the analysis?

The Counterfeiters

I went to The Counterfeiters last week with two friends.  It is well worth seeing.  It is a thought provoking movie about how different people respond (self preservation or the common good) to a life and death situation: in a Nazi concentration camp but with artistic talent that could help the Nazi war effort.  It won the Academy Award in 2007 for best foreign language film.

National Front seek to set up a "mini-state"

Former National Front member, Kyle Chapman, is seeking funding to set up a commune in North Canterbury for "like minded Europeans"

I believe that every person is born equal (regardless of where they are born, who their parents are, what nation or race they are born into, what gender, what sexuality). 

So, while I disagree fiercely with Kyle Chapman's racist views, in a democracy we must respect his right to say and do what he likes (within the law).  And I have a right to reject those views.

President Obama

A lot is resting on President Obama's shoulders.  The decisions of his administration will determine whether the world goes into a deep depression and whether we can respond in time to the great challenges of our time such as climate change. 

He has already done something few have managed to do in a very long time: engaged millions of Americans, young and old.  He has given them the power to change America.  He understands that great challenges require communities coming together united in a common purpose, not isolated individuals seeking only greed.

For the sake of us all, I hope that the Obama administration is able to re-new the social contract with America.  And where he leads on the economy and climate change, I hope the rest of the world will follow.

House Auction Illegal

The Department of Internal Affairs has rightly pointed out that the $100 house auction proposed by a couple in Christchurch is not an auction at all, but is in fact gambling.  What they are doing is illegal under the gambling act - it is an on-line form of gambling and it is for private and not a charitable purpose.  Anyone call sell their home on the trade-me auction site.  But an auction is where the highest bidder wins.  This "auction" will almost entirely come down to chance and is therefore closer to being a raffle or lottery than an auction.